Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 4.682328 5.496646 6.396991 7.464383 8.693310 10.061838 11.699227
2025-08-24 3.339743 4.407834 5.717391 7.432300 9.609027 12.269100 15.754233
2025-08-31 2.512291 3.663024 5.202191 7.391034 10.399383 14.360622 19.937512
2025-09-07 2.070636 3.286153 5.035822 7.700911 11.611298 17.081810 25.241299
2025-09-14 1.690011 2.895255 4.747973 7.746937 12.406379 19.275895 30.042599
2025-09-21 1.402984 2.577571 4.494117 7.770613 13.127141 21.398141 34.935554
2025-09-28 1.180243 2.314034 4.268793 7.782046 13.797185 23.479790 39.953413
2025-10-05 1.108619 2.297745 4.446062 8.473343 15.639909 27.581160 48.556833
2025-10-12 0.988252 2.165117 4.392365 8.744713 16.788006 30.647776 55.757450
2025-10-19 0.886965 2.048568 4.345703 9.013330 17.948917 33.833400 63.443710
2025-10-26 0.776120 1.889574 4.189685 9.046789 18.671979 36.309402 70.108855
2025-11-02 0.654243 1.681432 3.900000 8.771438 18.767015 37.648366 74.842728
2025-11-09 0.537629 1.463660 3.560244 8.356587 18.562167 38.457737 78.781262
2025-11-16 0.461438 1.326372 3.373066 8.237530 18.941720 40.423208 85.109816
2025-11-23 0.399835 1.211884 3.217576 8.163332 19.402381 42.589035 92.029393
2025-11-30 0.370010 1.174881 3.238562 8.492353 20.767352 46.698643 103.171293
2025-12-07 0.329067 1.097424 3.146300 8.539042 21.506840 49.580808 112.063110
2025-12-14 0.292513 1.024003 3.051256 8.563649 22.195575 52.415049 121.096825
2025-12-21 0.260191 0.955570 2.957166 8.575701 22.853456 55.238838 130.345712
2025-12-28 0.259240 0.986780 3.140784 9.331130 25.380516 62.402185 149.540135
2026-01-04 0.241395 0.958165 3.151061 9.627553 26.812094 67.227448 163.980958
2026-01-11 0.224990 0.930603 3.159814 9.920942 28.268116 72.232979 179.218942
2026-01-18 0.202760 0.876742 3.080649 9.957477 29.069364 75.783441 191.439076